The English major in me wanted to start this blog post with “April is the cruelest month,” leaning on one of the greatest poets in the English language, but The Waste Land is too great a poem to spend on an enrollment disruption that may be mild by comparison.
With May 1 on the horizon, enrollment leaders wonder which of the most recent wave of disruptions poses the greatest potential threat to yield. My vote goes to the tariff upheaval in trade policy that has equity markets in bear territory at a critical juncture in yield season and has driven the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence survey down dramatically. Could this be as damaging to yield as last year’s FAFSA problems? It’s unlikely, but that’s because the FAFSA debacle was uncorrectable in-cycle.
We can’t predict most disruptions. And “last year” hasn’t been the basis for predicting “next year” for five years now. It just makes increasing sense to invest in preparation. That’s the risk management role MARKETview plays by focusing you on what matters most to your goals, identifying and tracking Critical Elements that will lead to achieving them, even during these upheavals in the market.
But the jury is still out on tariff policy. We saw a 20 percent drop in the market in just a couple of days and further volatility following that. That is still mild compared to the failure of capital markets in 2008, or the crash of 1987, or the market decimation of 1929 ushering in the Great Depression. Oh yeah, there was also the dot com combustion of 2000. In the age of AI, it wouldn’t be prudent to forget that tech-focused one.
It was always “normal” for families to be price sensitive and averse to debt. But across many years of financial aid modeling, the data has displayed yield drag not captured in any simulations when economic growth slowed in the 4th and 1st quarters. So, it’s hard to imagine that a significant decline in asset values, and high market volatility in the value of those assets, won’t erode the economic confidence of many families as they anticipate the largest single expenditure they might make, apart from owning a house.
And while market volatility presents risk all by itself, it could get worse if the economy is pushed into recession, as some experts have warned. Then, the price of eggs and gas will drop as promised, but the days of higher egg prices may seem preferable by comparison.
Now that Disruption seems to have joined Death and Taxes as the only certainties in life, the vision MARKETview provides is foundational not just for enrollment planning and execution, but for institutional planning by extension. By creating clearer vision into market composition and behavior, MARKETview enables you to prioritize, segment, and track across the tactics and communications you deploy. The data is real-time, allowing you to observe how your enrollment strategy is reacting to a constantly changing landscape and pivot immediately if necessary.
After a couple of Covid years, a national departure from testing and the FAFSA debacle perhaps we thought disruption might take a breather. We now know it’s better to expect it — and make sure your institution is prepared.
April may be the cruelest month, but you should be able to see a kinder May from there.
Learn how MARKETview can help you accomplish your revenue goals even during a disrupted yield season by watching an on-demand webinar showcasing our Financial Aid Optimization services.